STAINLESS STEEL
STAINLESS REVIVAL TRICKLES DOWN TO RAW MATERIALS
March 4th, 2010 / Stainless Steel
The unexpected revival of stainless steel production in the first quarter is having a dramatic effect on the raw material supply chain, with nickel moving into a deficit and ferrochrome and molybdenum prices up more than 30% since the beginning of the year. The recovery of the stainless sector has been quite surprising especially considering that December 2009 was a poor month as mills cut production in an attempt to be lean and mean coming in to 2010.
A lot of the specialty alloys are doing well, but the real catalyst to the increase in physical premiums has been this about face by stainless at the beginning of the year, a US based nickel trader told AMM. "These guys were completely spooked last year and refused to carry any raw material inventories into 2010. When there order books improved, they had to buy spot nickel and many of the mills faced the stark realization that it just wasn’t available anymore at least not at a cheap price".
In addition to improved demand, North American nickel supply has been dramatically impacted by the 8 month strike at Vale Inco Ltd’s operations in Canada, which has kept about 10% of global supply off the market. All of this adds up to a global nickel deficit in 2010. It is a similar story in the ferrochrome market where prices are up 43% since the beginning of the year.
IN the molybdenum market, spot ferromolybdenum prices have increased to around $20/lb from $15/lb at the beginning of the year. While molybdic oxide prices have risen to $18/lb from $11.50.lb. Risks to raw material prices remain firmly to the upside for the next several months. Expectations of rising raw material prices are feeding the higher steel prices, causing a restocking cycle by buyers of stainless and carbon steel, this could stimulate further strong rises for raw materials and steel prices in the coming months.
Excerpts from American Metal Market. March 4th, 2010
Stainless Centers Keep a Lid on Stocks; Demand is StrongNovember 15th, 2006 / Stainless Steel
Unlike the carbon side of the steel industry, stainless service centers are keeping tight reins on inventory, though mills aren’t limiting production. Executives at the stainless service centers say they’re keeping a smaller inventory than normal. The smaller inventories are not because of a lack of demand, but the surcharge cost. Centers say keeping too much inventory on hand can be dangerous to the bottom line if nickel prices take a dive and the metal can’t be sold for as much as it was purchased. Right now, mangers are buying what they need and are not taking on any long positions.
The stainless mills’ December surcharges jumped about 10 cents a pound as a result of an increase in the cost of nickel.
Excerpts from American Metal Market. November 9, 2006.
Stainless Looking for November Relief as Prices MountOctober 10th, 2006 / Stainless Steel
With September winding down and surcharges set to go up again in October, stainless steel buyers continue to face high prices and tight supply. Views are mixed on how the picture will play out for November. Some stainless suppliers are letting inventories dwindle in hopes of a smaller surcharge in November while others are softening prices as a way of attracting business and ridding themselves of high-priced metal in fear of a price decrease.
Prices have been rising dramatically since the beginning of the year because of both base price and surcharge increases. The demand is still very strong and availability is still very tight now and it's leading some users to find alternatives.
A presenter at the Metals Service Center Institute's Economic Summit: Forecast 2007 event in Schaumburg, Ill. predicted stainless would decrease next year.
Excerpts from American Metal Market. September 28, 2006.
ATI Charges Fail to Cool Hot Market For StainlessSeptember 7th, 2006 / Stainless Steel
Stainless steel flat product demand shows no sign of abating, despite substantial surcharge increases to be implemented in October. Allegheny Technologies Inc. (ATI) of Pittsburgh was the first of North America's three main stainless steel producers to issue its October surcharge list. ATI has set its Type 304 stainless surcharge at $1.2571 a pound, up 14.8 percent in September; Type 316 at $2.1077 a pound, up 14.1 percent; and Type 321 at $1.4219 a pound, up 14.9 percent. The increases reflect the high price of nickel throughout August, the month against which the October surcharges are calculated. Currently, the average monthly price for nickel is at $13.94 a pound, up from $12.44 a pound during August. Demand is strong across all markets but especially in the energy market, sources said. "Demand's decent and better than last year," a Midwest buyer said. "Anything stainless for energy – pipe, tubing, tanks for storage, production, drilling or distillation – that whole ethanol and energy thing is hotter than anything." The events have created a "perfect storm," to the benefit of producing mills, he added. "I don't know anyone who thought that at the beginning of the year prices would get where they are. The tight supply and strong demand have caused the increases." North American mill lead times stretch into November, depending on the product, and those in Europe are out until December, sources said.
Excerpts from American Metal Market September 6, 2006
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